Closer than you think.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/08/technology/uber-web-summit-uberair/index.html

"Uber Elevate will be price competitive with Uber X when it launches. That’s right: if you pick the right destination, you could ride in a VTOL aircraft for the same price as being ferried around in a hipster’s Prius."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidvinjamuri/2017/11/09/flying-cars-are-no-joke-for-uber/#354789912600

But remains to be seen if all gets done.  Maybe.

Yeah the elec car is interesting vs IC or Hybrid or Volt generator.

Just got back from test driving a Bolt with my wife.  Very novel approach to a car.  Size inside does not jive with its tiny size outside.  Would be a good option for someone living in the city as it is very compact to park.  Also was told the Volt would be the right option for longer trips -> which was my suspicion.

He noted any Chevy dealer can fix the Bolt whereas the Tesla has to go back to a single repair shop here in Van. Is supposed to take 60 hrs @ 110 and 9 hrs @ 220 to charge provided your 220 dryer is not on.

Driving and handling were kinda similar feeling to a normal IC car -> but it did have more torque which was expected.  Drove and felt much better than a Prius.  Thought it was ok for an elec car if that is what you wanted to drive.  But price is way more than double vs a base Corolla or Civic or Mazda 3 etc.  So the break-even point is a very long time down the line.  If prices can be competitive in the future w/o incentives -> can see this being popular.  Otherwise not so much.  Do add about $2k for 220 charging at home.  Price gets up there.

So going elec is not cheap.  But it does cut smog etc.  Would be good if they recycle the Li Ion battery.  Would recommend taking one out for a spin.  Yeah interesting.

"Daddy Get Me a Baker".  Skip to 3:10 to see "a revolutionary car in its day".  Apparently very popular with fashionable women.

It's not easy to swap out an existing infrastructure, especially attempting to do so in multiple dimensions. I'm surprised that things are progressing as fast as they have. The incredible reservation rate for the model three shows a remarkable readiness in a large part of the population, but fulfilling that kind of demand in a shorter timeframe than the one we're experiencing is probably impossible. Absent that market demand, the introduction of the 3 would barely be newsworthy and the current rollout rate would be acceptable--even praiseworthy.

The multidimensional aspect is pretty remarkable. Tesla is starting delivery of the three, at the same time that they completed supplying Southern Australia with a massive powerwall in 100 days ( http://fortune.com/2017/11/23/elon-musk-australia-battery-50-million-bet/ ) and built the Kuai powerwall and solar farm that in conjunction with home solar, utility solar, and wind plants on Kuai is now supplying 90 percent of its power (https://www.theverge.com/2017/3/8/14854858/tesla-solar-hawaii-kauai-kiuc-powerpack-battery-generator ) and completed a massive powerwall energy peaking plant in Ontario, California. The batteries for those two projects would have blown up lithium battery production, made model three production impossible, and spiked the price, except it all came from the gigafactory, which is ramping production rapidly. Lithium battery prices declined 70 percent over the last 18 months.

At the same time (2017) the supercharger network more than doubled and the destination charging network tripled.

I think Tesla is about to become the worlds largest utility.

It's not easy to swap out an existing infrastructure, especially attempting to do so in multiple dimensions. I'm surprised that things are progressing as fast as they have. The incredible reservation rate for the model three shows a remarkable readiness in a large part of the population, but fulfilling that kind of demand in a shorter timeframe than the one we're experiencing is probably impossible. Absent that market demand, the introduction of the 3 would barely be newsworthy and the current rollout rate would be acceptable--even praiseworthy.

The multidimensional aspect is pretty remarkable. Tesla is starting delivery of the three, at the same time that they completed supplying Southern Australia with a massive powerwall in 100 days ( http://fortune.com/2017/11/23/elon-musk-australia-battery-50-million-bet/ ) and built the Kuai powerwall and solar farm that in conjunction with home solar, utility solar, and wind plants on Kuai is now supplying 90 percent of its power (https://www.theverge.com/2017/3/8/14854858/tesla-solar-hawaii-kauai-kiuc-powerpack-battery-generator ) and completed a massive powerwall energy peaking plant in Ontario, California. The batteries for those two projects would have blown up lithium battery production, made model three production impossible, and spiked the price, except it all came from the gigafactory, which is ramping production rapidly. Lithium battery prices declined 70 percent over the last 18 months.

At the same time (2017) the supercharger network more than doubled and the destination charging network tripled.

I agree with almost all of that, except the 3 rollout rate.  It is a few hundred cars so far.  They expected to be at 20,000 a month by now.  I am sure they will get it straightened out.

The Nissan Leaf has surprisingly sold the most vehicles at 283,000 now.  Interesting that the range is 150 miles for 2018.  That is way up but still short for a lot of uses. 

If you look at the current options you can see the "not yet" argument for each (to varying degrees).  This is going to look a whole lot different in a couple years.

http://www.plugincars.com/cars?field_isphev_value_many_to_one=pure+electric

If you look at the current options you can see the "not yet" argument for each (to varying degrees).  This is going to look a whole lot different in a couple years.

A friend just got this plug-in hybrid due to range anxiety.  They also have an XC90.  But have another with the Model S and Subaru and GMC truck.  So most peeps are not all pure elec save the planet.  More maybe check what the fuss is.

"Volvo's excellent Pilot Assist II adaptive cruise control works well in stop-and-go traffic, bringing the car to a complete stop with a brief pause before disengaging, and it keeps the car centered in its lane when on the move. It can't handle twisty roads and still requires you to keep your hands on the wheel ....."

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/auto/2018-volvo-xc60-t8/preview/

Can see autonomous for mundane stop and go.  But not for twisty fun driving.  Yesterday took out a stick WRX and found it very fun -> but the car had too much turbo lag.  So was disappointing that way.  Def needs an update at the lower end and put on to the SGP.  Basically feels long in the tooth at this point.

No doubt will be interesting to see the new cars coming out the next few years.  Puts one in a good position if in the market but not in a rush.  Am expecting a lot of new options for sure.

The breakeven for a 2018 Civic vs a Bolt base and optioned is 14-20 years here in BC with the EV credit based on current Hydro low and tier 2 rates.  In other regions the calcs will be different.  Until EV base prices drop -> would expect most peeps to mostly drive ICE then hybrids.

This does not factor the time value of money and principal difference invested.  Nor maintenance or insurance costs etc.